Eden Prairie navigates population changes

The World Population Review says that Eden Prairie population numbers are declining:

“Eden Prairie has a 2023 population of 60,876. Eden Prairie is currently declining at a rate of -1.83% annually, and its population has decreased by -5.38% since the most recent census, which recorded a population of 64,335 in 2020.”

This is a population loss of nearly 3,500 people.

Susan Brower is the Minnesota state demographer or student of population. In her role, she directs the Minnesota State Demographic Center, where she analyzes and interprets demographic data specific to Minnesota.

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Brower offers a more moderate picture of Eden Prairie’s population. Drawing on an estimate from the Metropolitan Council, she says that for 2021 and 2022, Eden Prairie had a total loss of only 175 people.

Bonnie Kollodge, Metropolitan Council senior public relations manager, says population forecasting is required by law “to help local governments plan for their land use, their needed infrastructure and services.”

People might be surprised to learn that there are varying estimates of Eden Prairie’s current and projected population. These differences stem from statisticians using diverse algorithms and research methods.

According to Todd Graham, principal demographer of the Met Council, two trends in Eden Prairie’s population must be carefully balanced. Since the 2020 census, the number of households in Eden Prairie has risen while the average household size has decreased. Therefore, an increase in households doesn’t necessarily indicate a rise in population.

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The Met Council’s forecast methodology report, released in April, emphasizes the significance of interregional migration in understanding regional population trends. This concept refers to the movement of residents within the region — for instance, relocating from Eden Prairie to Minnetrista or from Minnetonka to Eden Prairie. These movements are more population shifts than true departures from the region.

Brower said that the aging of Eden Prairie’s population and the passing of older residents can reduce the population. The Met Council recorded Eden Prairie’s 2020 census population at 64,198. Subtracting 175 brings the city’s estimated population at the end of 2022 to 64,023.

At the same time, Brower notes that a population decline may not pose a significant challenge to the city, provided city revenue remains stable. She highlights Eden Prairie’s successful retention of services and businesses.

Lisa Barajas, the Met Council’s director of community development, points out that Eden Prairie consistently offers vital amenities like parks, schools, and programs for the elderly.

Barajas says Eden Prairie makes itself attractive by planning and creating an inclusive economy and a shared infrastructure. She notes that Eden Prairie’s latest city plan is strong on business development.

It would seem that a city is much like a business. Both must be self-sustaining. Long a planned community, Eden Prairie deliberately makes itself attractive.

Joyce Lorenz, the city’s communications manager, describes Eden Prairie’s process: “The (Met Council population) data is supplied to the city as a courtesy. The  city references the Met Council’s data and regional policies along with several other data sources, periodically for long-range planning in various areas such as land use, infrastructure, public safety, etc.”

There is more than one way to grow. Brower notes that some suburbs that are the size of Eden Prairie plan for housing growth “vertically” — apartment houses, for example.

Graham does say, “There’s been a long-term slide in birth rates.” Brower adds, “We’re having fewer babies of our own.”

There is, however, a source of continued growth. Regarding international immigration, Brower declares, “You just don’t have the same kind of refresh of new population coming from abroad that you maybe had at the beginning of the 2010s. … International immigration plays a role in growth of the metro.” However controversial international immigration may be, it is a way for cities to thrive and continue.

Finally, Brower adds, “You can’t emphasize enough the importance of school districts. … Most families will likely stay put while their children are in school because they want their kids to have that connection to their peers and to have that kind of stable continuity over time in the same school system.”

Connection and continuity equal community sustainability.