Minnesota’s Walz as VP? The odds aren’t zero as Biden struggles to prove his electability

There are so many dominos that would have to fall before they get to him, but there is room within the wild speculation about the 2024 presidential election to envision another Minnesota politician appearing on a national ticket.

If President Biden decides to end his reelection bid, and if Democrats decide to promote Kamala Harris to the top of the ticket, and if Harris decides to balance her candidacy with a governor, and if she wishes to balance her coastal resume with someone from the Midwest, and if the most-mentioned Midwestern governors with their own presidential aspirations beg off from joining a campaign that could still lose — governors like Gretchen Witmer of Michigan or J.B. Pritzker of Illinois — then there would be only a few dominos left standing.

And Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is one of them. The land of 10,000 vice presidents — two anyway — could have another name in the mix for the No. 2 spot on the Democratic ticket come November.

Biden says he’s not going anywhere, and many party officials make public statements along the lines of “I’m Ridin’ with Biden ’til Biden’s Not Ridin.” That doesn’t mean they’re not pacing through the various scenarios should Biden keep sliding.  So what are they?

• Biden drops out before his official nomination: If Biden drops out and releases his delegates, he could ask them to support Vice President Kamala Harris. Even without his endorsement, Harris could gain the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August. (It’s also possible someone else could earn that nomination from the released delegates.) She would then, by tradition, choose a vice president who would be ratified by convention delegates. Party officials don’t love this scenario because there’s a risk of an open or “brokered” convention that displays a party in disarray and chaos. As fun as that would be for the news media, the party wants to avoid it.
• Biden drops out after his official nomination: The Democratic National Committee could move up its virtual nomination vote from the currently anticipated first week of August to something in the next week or so. That August date was crafted to assure that the Democrats had an official nominee before Aug. 7, the deadline for ballot access in Ohio. Either way, Biden and Harris are the nominees before the convention that begins Aug. 19 in Chicago. However, and this is a giant, however, once Biden is the nominee, he could decide to drop out after that point. In that case, a special committee that includes the chair of the Democratic Governors Association, the head of the DNC and the Democratic leaders of the U.S. House and Senate picks a new ticket and then has that choice ratified by the Democratic National Committee, the governing body of the party. If it happens before the scheduled convention, it could allow the party to defer the ratification to convention delegates. Either way, there can be no other candidates considered and that ticket could be ratified at the convention or at yet another virtual vote before. This rule was designed for emergencies, such as if something unexpected happens to the nominee, like a death.

So where does Walz fit in? Actually, lots of places. As chair of the Democratic Governors Association, Walz is one of those kingmakers. As co-chair of the DNC rules committee, Walz would be in the middle of a potential fight over how a new nominee is chosen if the party waits until the convention. And, as an aforementioned Midwest governor, he could be a potential running mate for Harris.

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Is this just Minnesota Exceptionalism at work? No one loves finding themselves on a list more than a Minnesotan, after all. But no, Walz has found his name on veep lists from The New Republic and CNN. Forbes, however, mentions U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar but not Walz. Newsweek lists neither. So, too, the New York Times.

Walz, of course, demurs. The only thing worse for his national standing in the party than appearing to take advantage of Biden’s current predicament is to not appear on those vice presidential short lists. As DGA chair, he has to speak for the group and not himself. It was Walz who took to the microphone after that July 3 meeting between Biden and Democratic governors, for example.

And while he expressed support for Biden remaining in the race, his remarks had a hint of equivocation that wasn’t evident when he defended the president after a special counsel questioned his mental condition in February. 

On Wednesday, during a very brief media availability, he repeated his support for Biden remaining in the campaign. 

“We have a process. Fourteen million people voted. Biden’s our nominee,” Walz said while agreeing that questions about Biden’s abilities after the debate “are fair” and have helped the party.

“We are not a party that all wears red hats and marches to the same drummer,” he said. “Knowing the threat of a second Trump presidency far outweighs the discussions we’re having now. At this point in time, if President Biden says he’s going forward, then that’s where I’m at. I’m working with him.”

Asked about the speculation about his presence on a national Biden-less ticket, Walz said: “I’m serving Minnesota first. It’s an honor but these things are parlor games that gets out there. I have never prepared my life to run for these offices but I think my life prepared me well.”

Walz said he is the DGA chair and is focused on fundraising and helping candidates.

“I’m just gonna stay in that space and let the chips fall where they may,” he said.

Being a member of the group that would pick a replacement would be awkward, but nothing in the party rules would prevent Walz from taking part in a process that ended with him on the ticket with Harris. He could also recuse himself if the others wanted him on the ticket.

Walz has something the other listed governors do not: somewhat lowered expectations about his political career. Whitmer, Pritzker, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro might see themselves as presidential nominees in 2028. But they have to know there is no faster path to political oblivion than being the losing vice presidential nominee? The last person to be No. 2 on a losing ticket to end up as president was Franklin Roosevelt. The only one who got close since then — and it wasn’t that close — was when 1976 No. 2 loser Bob Dole won the GOP nomination in 1996.

Related | Walz leading governors’ meeting with Biden to discuss post-debate strategy

Even people who had been VP and then lost the job in a reelection bid — Mike Pence, Dan Quayle and (ahem) Walter Mondale — didn’t light up the political world after moving out of Naval Observatory, though Mondale, like Dole, at least won a nomination for president.

Walz wouldn’t be a threat to the Whitmers and Newsoms and Shapiros of the party, said Kevin Parsneau, a political science professor at Minnesota State University, Mankato. 

“Walz not being on that list of potential presidential candidates feels like, ‘Oh, OK. I can go with that,” Parsneau said.

Brian McClung was a top aide to former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty when he ran for president and when he was considered in both 2008 and 2012 for a vice presidential spot. McClung said he doubts Biden would step aside but recognizes that the story is enough to trigger “accelerated speculation” about a Minnesotan’s place on the national political stage.

“I’m a firm believer that almost every second term governor in every state thinks about being president at some point, the only exception was likely Arnold Schwarzenegger who was constitutionally excluded,” McClung said. “They figure they’ve done a good job running their state — why not try it out for the country?

“With those thoughts come home-state media interest in the speculation,” he said. “Could it be fueled by dreams of future book deals among the journalists who knew the candidate back in the early days?”

The vetting process for potential running mates, however, is extensive and time-consuming, driven perhaps by the 1972 case where George McGovern replaced the nominated VP candidate Tom Eagleton because of media coverage about Eagleton’s treatment for mental illness.

“It’s hard to imagine what that process would be like if Biden stepped off the ticket,” McClung said. “Normally it takes months. Here it would need to be done in days.”

Parsneau said classic ticket-balancing, which aims to appeal to a variety of voter demographics, geographies and expectations, puts Walz in play.

“I don’t think it is a coincidence that when Democrats ran Barack Obama, they put an older white guy with governing experience on the ticket,” he said, referencing then-U.S. Sen. Joe Biden. Even though Kamala Harris has more governing experience than Barack Obama had when he ran, there still might be some idea that balancing out a woman of color with a white male governor would be a more comfortable choice, he said.

Related | Biden debate performance continues to roil Democrats in Washington

Walz could cite 12 years in the U.S. House and six years as governor, he said. Minnesota doesn’t carry the overly liberal political stigma nationally of California or New York.

“If they’re going to do something like that, he would be in the list of consideration,” Parsneau.  

Walz’s national profile has been enhanced by two occurrences — his position as DGA chair during a presidential election year and his participation in Minnesota’s DFL trifecta and the vast agenda it passed into law. For both reasons, Walz is a frequent guest on national television and has toured the nation speaking for Democratic governor candidates and as a surrogate for Biden.

That makes a difference to party insiders, both officers and the rank and file, Parsneau said.

“You’re not super known but you are floating around where people who do Democratic politics know who you are and have a positive impression,” he said.

It is telling, however, that Walz has not been quite as eager to accept TV news interviews since the debate and did not seem thrilled about that brief media availability Wednesday that was cut short after just a handful of questions.

Editor’s note: Peter Callaghan wrote this story for MinnPost.com. Callaghan covers state government for MinnPost.

This article first appeared on MinnPost and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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