Living expenses, illegal immigration top of mind for Greater Minnesotans, MinnPost poll shows

The top election issues for Minnesotans partly differ from region to region and are closely tied to party identification in those areas, according to the latest MinnPost/Embold Research poll.

A higher number of Greater Minnesotans than people in the Twin Cities listed the rising costs of goods, illegal immigration and the amount of taxes paid as top priorities while those in the Twin Cities echoed concerns over rising costs but also had abortion rights top of mind.

Meanwhile, GOP Presidential candidate Donald Trump has strong favorability ratings among Republicans in Greater Minnesota while Kamala Harris gets nearly equal support from Democrats in the Twin Cities. 

Top issues

Many voters in Greater Minnesota (67%) named the rising costs of goods like groceries and gas as a concern, followed by illegal immigration (53%) and taxes (45%). 

In the Twin Cities, the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and some state governments’ banning of abortion was a top concern (56%), followed closely by concerns over the rising costs of goods (54%). The cost of housing and gun violence were tied at 48% as the next top concerns. 

“If you look at the rising cost of goods like groceries and gas … everybody’s concerned about that — worried about stretching their dollars,” said David Schultz, a professor of political science and legal studies at Hamline University. “But when you get to the social issues, that’s really where the big differences start to kick in.” 

When looking at social issues by party and region, Democrats in Greater Minnesota have the same top issues as Democrats in the Twin Cities, putting rising costs and abortion rights as top concerns, while Republicans in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities alike say illegal immigration and taxes are top concerns. 

“That clearly shows a partisan divide across a large range of issues, but interplays with geography in the sense that we might see some more modulation among, let’s say, especially Republicans in the Twin Cities or the metro area,” Schultz said. 

The issues important to people in the Twin Cities, the suburbs and Greater Minnesota, however, stayed consistent with a poll conducted by MinnPost in November. The latest poll, conducted in early September, surveyed 1,616 likely 2024 voters in Minnesota and has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. 

Opinions on Trump, Harris

The poll shows stark regional differences when it comes to perceptions of presidential and vice presidential candidates, though those differences were also consistent when broken down along party lines. 

Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president, has a higher favorability rating in Greater Minnesota than he does in the Twin Cities. 

Twenty-two percent of Greater Minnesotans view him favorably while he has a -59% net favorability rating in the Twin Cities. However, a much larger portion – 87% percent – of the Greater Minnesotans who identify as Republicans view him favorably. Trump’s favorability in Greater Minnesota has increased since the poll in November, when perceptions of him were 1% unfavorable. 

The same dichotomy is true for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, in the Twin Cities, where 40% of those surveyed view her favorably. (Eighty-four percent of respondents in the Twin Cities who are Democrats view her favorably).

Trump's net favorability rating in the Twin Cities is a drop from -44% last year. 

While favorability for both Trump and his running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance, is positive in Greater Minnesota, it becomes unfavorable in the metro area and even more so in the Twin Cities. The same holds true when looking at region and party distinctions, meaning Republicans in the metro region view that ticket less favorably than Republicans in Greater Minnesota. 

“Democrats and Republicans are sorting themselves out geographically,” Schultz said. “In the case here, (within) the Republican Party there's further sorting going on. We're seeing where the intensity for the support for Trump among Republicans in Greater Minnesota appears to be stronger than the intensity of support for him in the Twin Cities.”

He added: “That might reflect the fact that what you're getting is maybe more moderate Republicans who feel alienated from the Republican party that has become under Trump and Vance.” 

When asked about their choice if the election were held today, 61% of Greater Minnesotans say they would vote for Trump (an increase of 6 points from last year, when the question was asked about voting between Trump and President Joe Biden, who was then the presumed Democratic nominee). 

In the Twin Cities, 73% of respondents say they would vote for Harris, a stark increase from the 58% who said they would vote for Biden over Trump when that question was asked last year. 

Schultz said that signals how Biden was perceived as more centrist while Harris appeals more to the Democratic Party’s liberal base. “Does she alienate some of those Greater Minnesota voters that Biden is able to pick up?” he said. “There seems to be some evidence to suggest that.” 

The poll also asked respondents about Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate.

Sixty-four percent of Greater Minnesota respondents view Walz unfavorably while 33% view him favorably. Since last year’s poll, he’s become more unfavorable in Greater Minnesota, with a net -31% unfavorable rating compared with -23% last year. His unfavorability is even higher among Republicans in Greater Minnesota, with 95% viewing him unfavorably — and the numbers are almost just as high in the metro and Twin Cities. 

That contrasts to the state as a whole, where 50% of respondents view him favorably, notably because his favorability is much higher in the Twin Cities metro area (73%), where the majority of the state’s population resides.

“There just has been more partisan sorting that it appears that Democrats have become more universally positive about him,” said Ben Greenfield, who conducted the poll for Embold Research. “Republicans have become more universally negative about him. And then there's just fewer people who are in the neutral category than we had last year.” 

Regional and partisan differences

Perceptions of safety in the Twin Cities also vary by region and political identification, according to the poll. For example, 85% of Republicans in Greater Minnesota feel unsafe in the Twin Cities while 39% of Twin Cities Republicans feel unsafe in that same area. 

Democrats have higher perceptions of safety in the Twin Cities, which also varied by region, with 62% of those who live in Greater Minnesota saying they feel safe in the Twin Cities while 82% of respondents who live in the Twin Cities say they feel safe there. 

While the results show that people’s top issues — like illegal immigration, safety and abortion rights — are split more on party affiliation than region, the poll also shows areas where, regionally, one issue holds more weight. 

For example, gun rights are a bigger concern among Republicans in Greater Minnesota (with 48% of respondents indicating it’s a top issue) compared with Republicans in the Twin Cities, where only 25% put it as a top issue. The same was true with the cost of housing being a more significant issue for Republicans in the Twin Cities while election security and voter fraud is a more common concern for Republicans in Greater Minnesota than their counterparts in the Twin Cities. 

The cost of living was another issue that split along regional and party lines, with more Republicans across all regions indicating their income was falling behind the cost of living. While the percentage of Democrats who indicated their income was falling behind the cost of living was lower, Democrats in Greater Minnesota indicated it at slightly higher rates than their counterparts in the Twin Cities.

Editor's note: Ava Kian wrote this story for MinnPost.com. Kian is MinnPost's Greater Minnesota reporter.

This article first appeared on MinnPost and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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