Tuesday’s primary results show fault lines in Minnesota’s GOP

WASHINGTON — Minnesota Republicans were split Tuesday as conservative party activists showed their strength in supporting disruptive figures like Royce White over more traditional candidates. 

White won the GOP Senate primary and will face U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar in November, though more traditional Republicans managed to hang on in other races. 

White, who campaigns on conspiracy theories, protectionist trade policies and isolationist foreign policy, won the U.S. Senate primary with 38.5% of the vote. Meanwhile, his GOP rival, Navy veteran Joe Fraser, won 29.3% of the vote and five other Republican candidates divided up the rest.

So, even if party activists eked out a victory with White, their candidate did not even secure 40% of the GOP primary ballots. 

“While Royce White ended up winning the primary, the vote was heavily divided,” University of Minnesota political science professor Tim Lindberg said. “This is a clear indication of the difficulty the Minnesota Republican Party is having finding suitable candidates to run for statewide office against DFL incumbents.”

Republicans haven’t won a statewide race in Minnesota since 2006. A Survey USA poll conducted last month showed Klobuchar with a 22-point lead over White.

“White has a tough task in finding a way to effectively attack Klobuchar, who has generally run ahead of other Democratic candidates when she’s been up for reelection,” Lindberg said.

White has been steeped in controversy, spending campaign money in a strip club and on limousines, denouncing the “Jewish elite,” and failing to pay tens of thousands of dollars in back child support and loans.

Lindberg said it “would be interesting” if White could rely on Donald Trump’s presence on the ballot in November or if Klobuchar’s popularity among independents and more moderate voters overrides any coattail effects.

Related | Tensions between party activists and establishment candidates mark GOP races for U.S. House and Senate

A MinnPost analysis of White’s strengths among Tuesday’s GOP voters showed he was much stronger in the Twin Cities and its suburbs than in Greater Minnesota — especially in the counties that border Iowa in the south and those on the Iron Range in the north.

Traditional Republicans win key congressional primaries 

The strength of GOP activists was also evident in other races, even if their favored candidate did not win.

Christian conservative Steve Boyd, who raised less than $25,000 to defeat Rep. Michelle Fischbach, campaigned vigorously in the 7th District and won more than 35% of the vote. Fischbach had raised about $1.5 million and spent more than $1 million in this bid for reelection.  

With the support of conservative activists, Boyd had blocked the congresswoman — considered one of the most conservative in the U.S. House — from winning her party’s endorsement at a GOP district convention in April.

“The Republican primary in CD7, between incumbent Michelle Fischbach and newcomer Steve Boyd, was somewhat close given that there was minimal policy criticism of Fischbach from Republicans over the past two years,” Lindberg said.

Fischbach is a shoo-in for reelection. But Lindberg questioned Boyd’s “relatively strong showing.”

“Does it mean that Fischbach isn’t perceived as reflecting the conservative rural values prominent across the region? Or did some of the criticism of her being absent from the district ring true?” he asked.

Fractures in Minnesota’s GOP were also evident in a congressional race where its endorsed candidate had suspended his campaign.

In the GOP primary that would determine the next candidate to try to unseat Rep. Angie Craig, D-2nd District, Tayler Rahm ran to the right of Joe Teirab, whose candidacy was supported by Rep. Tom Emmer, R-6th District, and other GOP party leaders.

But Rahm dropped out of the race after Emmer offered him the job of senior consultant to the Trump campaign in Minnesota. Still, 24% of the Republican voters pulled the lever for Rahm, who was no longer in the race but whose name was still on the ballot.

Nonetheless, it will be Teirab, who won about 70% of the vote on Tuesday, who will challenge Craig.

Teirab is expected to pose a stronger challenge to Craig than Rahm would have, because Teirab would likely appeal more to the moderate swing voters in the 2nd District.

So, Craig was quick to attack Teirab, focusing in part on his establishmentarian credentials. “He’s a guy who has spent months doing anything to win the support of Washington Republicans,” she said in a statement.

Democrats also showed divisions

The split among Minnesota’s Democrats was best seen in the bitter race in the 5th District, in which Rep. Ilhan Omar overcame, for the second time, a strong challenge from fellow DFLer Don Samuels.

Two years ago, Samuels lost the race by fewer than 2,500 votes. But this time, the margin was larger. Omar won the rematch by more than 16,000 votes.

Related | Rep. Ilhan Omar fends off Don Samuels, again, while Royce White wins GOP Senate primary

One thing remained the same, however. The race was characterized by negative ads and constant attacks until the very end.

“This campaign has been one of the ugliest, most disgusting campaigns against me that I have ever witnessed,” Omar said in her victory speech. “I hope they reflect on the shameful way they decided to divide our district and the incredible people we are grateful to represent.”

Omar also called out Samuels for attacks on her husband’s business deals. 

She said her husband, Tim Mynett, “was put through the ringer.”

“But he stood by my side with a smile, joyful,” she said.

Lindberg said Omar’s larger margin against Samuels “was a reflection of taking her challenger seriously this time around.”

“Despite this, she still only managed 56% of primary voters,” he said.

Lindberg said some “non-Democrats” may have crossed over to vote for Samuels in an attempt to oust Omar in Tuesday’s primary. Last weekend White and ultraconservative activist Laura Loomer urged 5th District Republicans to vote for Samuels.  

“You are allowed to do this in an Open primary … If 5,000 GOP voters cross over to vote against her on the 13th, we can remove her from office.” Loomer posted on X.

But Lindberg said some of Samuels’ attacks on Omar, which focused on her “divisiveness” and what he called a “one-sided” approach to Israel’s war in Palestine, may have hit their mark and may have cost Omar votes.

“It’s clear that continued criticisms of her policies and stances matter,” he said. “This is especially interesting when you compare her race to (U.S. Rep.) Betty McCollum in CD4, who was unopposed in her reelection despite many similar views.”

The American Israel Political Action Committee (AIPAC) flirted with getting involved in the race in order to oust Omar by reaching out to Democrats who might challenge Omar.

But in the end, AIPAC concentrated its energy and resources on other “Squad” members, successfully helping to oust Reps. Cori Bush of Missouri and Jamaal Bowman of New York and largely staying out of the 5th District race.

Samuels said he believed AIPAC’s help “could have made a difference, that we could have won.”

But, he added: “I wanted to win this race without them.”

He said the “best thing” that could have come out of the heated primary was that Omar, who blanketed the district with town halls and personal appearances, may now adopt a more visible role in her job as a congresswoman.

“Don’t just campaign that way, lead that way,” he advised Omar.

Editor’s Note: Ana Radelat wrote this story for MinnPost.com. Radelat is MinnPost’s Washington, D.C., correspondent. 

MinnPost reporter Winter Keefer contributed to this story.

This article first appeared on MinnPost and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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